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Climate Change and Large-Area Corn Yield in the Southeastern United States

High Plains Climate Ctr., Dep. of Agric. Meteorology, P.O. Box 830728, L.W. Chase Hall, Univ. of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE 68583-0728
Virginia State Climatology Office, Dep. of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22903.

^* Corresponding author.

There is concern about the negative effects that a possible trace-gas-inducedclimate change will have on crop yields. This study determinesthe effect of climate change already observed on large-area corn yield(Zea mays L.) in the southeastern USA. Our multiple regression modelsdiffer from most previous large-area models in two important respects.First, we modeled simultaneously the technological trend and the climate.This is required because of the warming of Southeastern nightsduring the past 50 yr. Second, we used maximum and minimum temperatures,rather than average temperature. Our results generally associateyield reductions with increases in daytime temperatures duringthe month of corn pollination. In the Middle and Upper South, increasedyield is associated with warming of nighttime temperatures during mid-season.A trace-gas-induced warming should produce minimal changein maximum temperatures. Because projections of future climate generallyindicate more night warming than day warming, our results arguethat Southeastern corn yield will either change very little or may increaseslightly beyond the increase normally expected from technologicaladvancement.

Received for publication November 9, 1992.

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